Evaluating the skill of meteorological-based indices for determining bushfire potential in Jamaica
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Tuesday 21st May 2024, 14:30-15:30 BST (13:30-14:30 UTC)
Online and in-person at Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, Sir Alexander Fleming Building Room SAF 121 Map
Welcome to this special Leverhulme Wildfires Guest Speaker seminar where we are joined by Candice Charlton, visiting the Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires Environment and Society, from The University of the West Indies, Mona, in Jamaica.
In this talk, Candice will share her research investigating bushfire management in Jamaica and the Caribbean, focusing on south-central Jamaica, where bushfire frequencies are high. The research evaluates three potential bushfire meteriological-based indices from 2001 to 2019, using data from NASA MODIS and Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB). Her research assesses the indices’ effectiveness in representing bushfire climatology and variability, alongside their relationship with oceanic and atmospheric factors. Her findings reveal which indices hold potential for producing seasonal bushfire outlooks for south-central Jamaica, and the importance of monitoring large-scale oceanic patterns in bushfire management on the island.
- Please register on Eventbrite whether you are attending online or in person*, so that you receive any updates, including room location. *if you are a member of public /non-Imperial who would like to attend in person, please register on Eventbrite, but also contact us at wildfire@imperial.ac.uk so that we have a list of external visitors.
- Once you have registered via Eventbrite, you will receive a joining link /room location closer to the event.
- Candice Charlton joins us as a sponsored Visiting Researcher, from 13th May 2024 for 3 weeks. If you would like to arrange a meeting whilst she is with us in London, please contact Adriana Ford at a.ford@imperial.ac.uk
- Any general queries, please contact wildfire@imperial.ac.uk
About the Speaker
Candice Charlton is a dedicated researcher and educator in the field of Applied Physics, specializing in climate variability and its implications for bushfire risk management. Currently finalizing her PhD in Applied Physics from The University of the West Indies, Mona, and holds a B.Sc. in Energy and Environmental Physics with a minor in Science Education.
Ms. Charlton has made significant contributions to various research projects encompassing climate change, energy, and bushfire management. She served as Project Coordinator at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, leading the development of a bushfire early warning system. Additionally, she acted as a National Consultant for the Climate Change RT&D Project at CATIE (The Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Centre), where she provided expertise on climate change research and technology development for the energy sector.
In her role as an Assistant Lecturer at The University of the West Indies Mona, Ms Charlton also shares her expertise with students across a spectrum of courses, including Introductory Physics and specialized topics such as Renewable Energy, Fluid Mechanics, and Environmental Physics.
Beyond academia, Ms. Charlton actively engages in community service initiatives. She serves as the President of the Youth Department at Hope United Church of God and is the Founder and Director of Zeeva Foundation Limited, dedicated to supporting educational endeavours and community development projects in Jamaica. Within her department, she also holds roles as the Co-coordinator of the Physics Olympiad and the Student Experience Liaison.
She embodies her philosophy, inspired by 1 Corinthians 10:31, “So whether you eat or drink or whatever you do, do it all for the glory of God”.
Abstract
The study investigates bushfire management in Jamaica and the Caribbean, focusing on south-central Jamaica, where bushfire frequencies are high. It evaluates three bushfire potential indices Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD), and Water Potential (Ψw) from 2001 to 2019, using NASA MODIS and Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB) data. The indices’ effectiveness in representing bushfire climatology and variability is assessed, alongside their relationship with oceanic and atmospheric factors. Results indicate that Ψw correlates well with bushfire climatology and demonstrates good performance in identifying high-risk periods, particularly in March and July. Regression models based on Ψw and VPD show promise in representing bushfire variability for certain seasons. However, KBDI’s peaks occur later than observed, and its seasonal models perform less effectively compared to the other indices. All indices show significant relationships with large-scale climate indices on both monthly and 1-month lag time scales. The study suggests that Ψw, in particular, holds potential for producing seasonal bushfire outlooks for south-central Jamaica, and the importance of monitoring large-scale oceanic patterns in bushfire management on the island.
