Optimality-based Wildfire Modelling

There must be enough fuel, dry and flammable conditions, suitable weather, and an ignition source to start the fire. However, the amount of fuel and atmospheric aridity influence the size and intensity of fires later. Understanding wildfire dynamics at spatial and temporal scales is crucial in wildfire modelling. The gross primary production (GPP) serves as an indicator of the availability of fuel for the fire. At the same time, the vapour pressure deficit (VPD) signals atmospheric aridity and plays a crucial role in the fire regime. We use the light-use efficiency p-model, an optimality-based model for accurately estimating GPP and VPD.

This research is focused on establishing the relationship between GPP, VPD, and fire on spatial and temporal scales. This relationship holds significant potential for advancing our understanding of wildfire behaviour. We link this relationship with global fire size, intensity, and burned area across different biomes.

Duration: June 2024-ongoing

 

Image: Prescribed fires, Fire Adapt Brazil Study Hub, taken by Adriana Ford

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