With the increasing intensity and severity of wildfires throughout North America, assets within the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) are subjected to escalating risk and vulnerability. Throughout Canada, WUI communities, notably Jasper, Lytton, and Fort McMurray have been devastated by wildfires. In California, structural losses alone in the 2017-18 wildfires exceeded USD40bn (Bowman et al, 2020).

This escalating exposure of property to wildfires negatively impacts both insurance markets and the capacity to provide loss and recovery assistance to WUI communities. The 2024 Jasper wildfire caused CAD$880million in insured losses resulting in the most expensive insurance outlay in Canadian National Park history (Williams, 2024). Statefarm and Allstate, two of California’s largest homeowner insurance providers ceased new property insurance applications in 2023 due to rising pressures from wildfires and inflation. Consequently, this exposure to wildfire costs is inducing a recession of affordable wildfire insurance within fire-prone communities.

Escalating exposure to wildfire costs and inaccessibility to coverage stem not only from increasing wildfire pressures but from economic, political and social disconnects between the needs of stakeholders and insurers. If disconnects are recognised and addressed, equitable, accessible and economically sustainable wildfire insurance within North American WUI’s may be possible.

In turn, understanding the nuances of federal and state policy in conjunction with the interests of market and community stakeholders is critical in understanding how context-specific wildfire insurance can best be implemented to meet contemporary and future recovery needs.

 

Aims of the project

The primary project aim is to determine how wildfire insurance can be designed to meet the needs of both insurance markets and WUI communities in an equitable, accessible, and financially sustainable way across North America. This will be achieved through…

  • Conceptualising and comparing how different state and federal-level policy environments in the US and Canada influence the capacities of insurance to function as an effective recovery tool for wildfire loss.
  • Determining regulatory/financial factors and preferences insurance stakeholders possess that enable or inhibit their capacity to provide accessible, economically sustainable insurance to communities within their potential WUIs.
  • Identifying the challenges WUI communities face that influence their capacity or desires to acquire Wildfire insurance.
  • Determining and analysing the needs, preferences, and perceptions of WUI stakeholders and insurers so to enable cross-comparison with other North American market preferences.

The project is set to utilise a multiplicity of data collection methods that comprises of community surveys, semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and choice modelling. Details on final data collection methods will be finalised shortly.

 

 

 

References:

Bowman, D.M.J.S. et al. (2020) “Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene,” Nature Reviews Earth and Environment. Springer Nature, pp. 500–515. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0085-3.

Williams, E. (2024) “Jasper wildfire caused $880M in Insured Losses: Insurance Bureau of Canada” Available at: Jasper wildfire caused $880M in insured losses: Insurance Bureau of Canada | CBC News

Leadership Team

The project will aim to: (1) characterise the potential for wildfire damages across the UK, (2) identify stakeholders with interests in UK wildfire management, (3) evaluate the effectiveness of the existing wildfire management institutional framework, (4) assess the general public’s, experts’ and stakeholders’ understanding of wildfire, and their perceptions of wildfire risk, (5) evaluate the determinants of risk perceptions and examine their stability over time, and (6) explore the public’s and experts preferences for wildfire mitigation and adaptation policy interventions.

 

Duration: 2024- 2028

 

 

 

Image: BBC – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-48030091, Fair use, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=60886523

Leadership Team

The scale and frequency of disastrous wildfires in South African wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas has brought about notable social, economic, and environmental devastations. For instance, the 2017 Knysna wildfire in the Western Cape resulted in the death of seven people, and the evacuation of around 10,000 residents, while destroying approximately 1,000 homes and area of 9,440 ha. Not too long after, in 2021, the city of Cape Town, South Africa’s oldest city and seat of its national parliament suffered the destructive Devil’s Peak fire. Sweeping down through the Table Mountain National Park, the fire destroyed the historic library of the University of Cape Town along with a historic windmill, restaurants, and a residential area in the suburb of Vredehoek and surrounding areas. The catastrophic wildfires in the Western Cape Province were a ‘wake-up call’ for South Africa, highlighting the risk of wildfire and the problems of controlling it, particularly at the urban fringe or ‘wildland-urban interface’ where housing and urban development come into contact to often fire-prone landscapes in South Africa.

Project Aims

The aim of this project, therefore, is to understand the theory and practice of wildfire risk management in South Africa and the prospects for improving it. This study seeks to establish the scope for other developing countries to adopt international WUI wildfire management best practices developed in high-income countries such as the US, Australia and Europe. Many of these management strategies are likely to be challenging in the South African context where identity and the ‘land question’ as well as acute inequality and the prevalence of informal housing introduce different dynamics into the implementation of more anticipatory and preventative wildfire risk management practices.

Research Questions

In particular this study focusses on four functional elements of WUI wildfire management: preventative land-use planning and regulation; vegetation management; fire suppression operations; and insurance mechanisms to finance recovery after wildfires and incentivize risk reduction. This approach is especially ideal as it will address wildfire management with emphasis on the community’s socio-economic dynamics and encourage community-based resilience in developing countries. To improve understanding of WUI wildfire management in South Africa this project explores how wildfire management functions are influenced by:

  1. Risk perception and communication
  2. Coordination challenges within government and with NGOs, business and community groups
  3. Identity and social capital in divided post-apartheid society.

 

Research Methods

This project is based in South Africa in the case study areas of Cape Town and Knysna, and uses qualitative research methods  – semi-structured interviews and focus groups – to engage with professionals and community members who work and reside in wildland-urban interface areas.

From 2023-24, semi-structured interviews were conducted to engage with key stakeholders (professionals and practitioners from fire services, fire protection association, land-use planning and insurance industry), whilst focus groups were conducted to engage community members residing in WUI areas from informal settlements, township settlements, and formal settlements.

Photo – Township settlement, South Africa, Credit- Angel Goldsmith

Photo – Formal settlement, South Africa, Credit- Angel Goldsmith

Photo – Informal settlement, South Africa, Credit- Angel Goldsmith

Duration:  2022-2026

Leadership Team

This project interlinks prevention and protection from wildfire risk, by focusing on providing a clearer understanding of uncontrolled fires and the conditions that cause them to arise in the wildland urban interface. These are a global phenomenon that are becoming more commonplace as changes in moisture and local temperature driven by climate change affect local fuel properties and ecosystems. As we construct more housing and industry in areas that were previously wildlands, the Wildland-Urban Interface becomes more critical as wildfires now affect infrastructure, urban systems and agricultural land. Different vegetation distributions can lead to very different fire spread mechanisms, as well as different effects on structures. In this project we will aim at quantifying some of these mechanisms for different WUI scenarios.

Duration: 2024-2028

 

 

Feature image: by Matthias Fischer from Pixabay

Leadership Team

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